KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021

The purpose of the seminar is to provide a platform for presenting and discussing ongoing research on determinants and consequences of globalisation in general and global value chains in particular. The seminar will take place on an irregular basis at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy or at the Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel. Both are scientific partners of KCG. Information about upcoming presentations will be provided here in advance.

If you have any questions about the KCG Research Seminar, please contact Dr. Wan-Hsin Liu (KCG Coordinator).

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-12 (Online): 

Topic: New Importer Dynamics and the Effects of Trade Liberalization

Victor Gimenez-Perales (Kiel Institute & KCG)

Abstract: Firms that start importing source only a small share of their intermediate inputs abroad and expand this share over time. I show that a model of multi-input firms with a sunk import entry cost cannot replicate these new importer dynamics. Introducing an adjustment cost per input to the sunk-cost model creates a hysteresis effect at the intermediate input level and reconciles the model with the data. I use a calibrated version of the sunk-cost model and the extended model to identify the effects of trade liberalization. The simulations show that a decrease in import costs or import prices with the new importer dynamics generates larger aggregate welfare and productivity gains, but these gains take more time to materialize. Moreover, in the extended model, the productivity gains affect a wider range of firms.

Date: Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2021, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-11 (Online): 

Topic: Bring the boys back home: The impact of foreign divestment on local firms

Prof. Holger Görg, Ph.D. (Kiel University, Kiel Institute & KCG)

Abstract: Divestments by foreign multinationals are an important phenomenon that is largely neglected in the literature. We use firm level panel data from China to estimate the impact of such divestments on the performance of domestic firms in the local economy. To the best of our knowledge, there is no empirical study that has looked at these effects. Our results suggest that, overall, domestic firms may be able to benefit from divestments by foreign firms through spillovers. We find evidence suggesting that the positive overall effect for private firms is driven by movement of workers from the divested firm to the local firm, as well as by a reduction in competition reducing crowding out. SOEs, by contrast, are negatively affected by loss of technology transfer and customer-supplier relationships with foreign firms.

Date: Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2021, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-10 (Online):

Topic: The (Non-)Neutrality of Value Added Taxation

Prof. Dr. Frank Stähler (University Tübingen)

Abstract: This paper employs a structural gravity model for final goods trade and novel VAT regime data to investigate the impact of value-added taxes (VATs) on final goods imports and domestic production of final goods. We show that a VAT increase does not only reduce imports and internal trade of final goods but also leads to a relative increase in internal trade compared to aggregate imports. This result can only be explained by changes in pre-tax pricing behavior. A conservative quantification shows that a 1% increase in the VAT rate implies a welfare loss of 1.6 to 3.2 % in the European Union.

Date: Friday, September 24, 2021, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Conference Room at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and via Zoom

Please note:
There is a very limited capacity for attending the seminar at the Kiel Institute.
If you plan to join in person, please send an enquiry to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de for registration.
To join the seminar via Zoom, please send an email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the corresponding Zoom-Link.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-9 (Online):

Topic: Frictions to intranational investment

Julian Hinz (Bielefeld University, Kiel Institute & KCG)

Abstract: Despite unhalted technological progress in transport and communication infrastructure over the past century, geographical and cultural distance remain major obstacles to the flow of goods and production factors to date. In this paper, we show that geographical and cultural distance forcefully shape intranational investment flows in Norway, preventing an efficient allocation of capital to firms. To that end, we derive a structural gravity equation of investment from a general equilibrium model with multiple locations, multiple assets, and information frictions. Based on the model, we identify frictions related to geographical distance, travel time, administrative borders, and language differences and quantify the loss in terms of portfolio efficiency caused by each individual friction and by gravity as a whole. We also aim to study the impact of major infrastructure developments during the 2000s through the lens of the model: The politically-driven roll-out of broadband internet access across the country and the rapid expansion of the flight route network driven by Norwegian Airlines. Finally, we aim to deliver ex-ante predictions for the effects of a railway line connecting Northern Norway to the country’s main rail network, as well as the effects of a change to the speed limit on major road connections.

Date: Tuesday, September 21, 2021, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-8 (Online):

Topic: A Hitchhiker’s Guide to Decentralized Finance

Julien Prat (CREST, Ecole Polytechnique)

Date: Tuesday, September 14, 2021, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-7 (Online):

Topic: Invoicing currency choice: Preliminary evidence from French firm-level data

Sonali Chowdhry (Kiel Institute & KCG)

Abstract: This paper examines firm-specific determinants of the choice of invoicing currency in international trade. Using highly disaggregated customs data from France spanning 2011-2017, it provides new stylised facts on the selection of firms into local currency pricing (LCP) and the dynamics of LCP across and within firms. In doing so, the paper contributes to the growing literature on the exchange rate risk management of trading firms. The firm-level evidence presented also holds policy implications for the transmission of trade shocks across borders and efforts by Central Banks to promote the use of local currencies for settlements.

Date: Tuesday, August 17, 2021, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-6 (Online):

Topic: The Dynamics of Importer-Exporter Connection

Victor Gimenez-Perales (Kiel Institute & KCG)

Abstract: I develop an importer-exporter model in which importers differ in productivity, substitutability of inputs and final demand elasticity. Importers invest in expanding the set of potential exporters and choose from which to source. The model delivers three novel predictions. The lower final demand elasticity and the higher substitutability of inputs of an importer: (i) the more likely are connections to be discontinued, (ii) the lower the trade value growth per surviving connection and (iii) the smaller the effects of trade cost shocks. I provide evidence in favor of all these predictions by using customs transaction data from Colombia, with the signing of FTAs as a source of exogenous variation.

Date: Tuesday, August 10, 2021, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-5 (Online):

Topic: Different antidumping legislations within the WTO: What can we learn from China’s varying market economy status?

Prof. Dr. Alexander Sandkamp (Kiel University, IfW & KCG)

Abstract: This paper examines how varying antidumping methodologies applied within the World Trade Organization differ in the extent to which they reduce targeted exports. We show that antidumping duties, on average, hit Chinese exporters harder than those of other targeted countries. This difference can be traced back in part to China’s non‐market economy status, which affects the way antidumping duties are calculated. Furthermore, we show that the type of imposed duty matters, as ad‐valorem duties affect exports differently compared to specific duties or duties conditional on the export price. Overall, however, antidumping duties remain effective in reducing imports independent of market economy status.

Date: Tuesday, May 25, 2021, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-4 (Online):

Topic: Decoupling Global Value Chains

Prof. Dr. Peter Eppinger (University of Tübingen)

Abstract: The supply chain contagion sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic has brought an important question to the forefront of the policy debate: Can cutting global value chains (GVCs) benefit a country by shielding it from foreign shocks? Using a quantitative trade model we find that shutting down GVCs causes substantial welfare losses in all countries. In this counterfactual world without GVCs, the international repercussions of a Covid-19 shock in China are reduced on average, but magnified in some countries. A unilateral repatriation of all GVCs by the U.S. would reduce national welfare by 1.6% but barely change U.S. exposure to a foreign shock. More generally, we find across a wide range of scenarios that the reduction in shock exposure due to decoupling does not compensate the direct welfare costs.

Date: Friday, April 16, 2021, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-conference@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

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KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-3 (Online):

Topic: Foreign Divestment – Crisis or Chance for China’s Innovation Edge?

Prof. Holger Görg, Ph.D. (Kiel University, IfW & KCG)

Abstract: The recent move towards decoupling from China, prompted by the 2018 trade war, has implications for the innovativeness of Chinese firms. Using patent data from the Chinese State Intellectual Property Office, together with comprehensive firm-level data, applying an inverse propensity score re-weighting methodology to deal with selection bias, we estimate changes in the patenting activity of firms following ownership transition to Chinese owners, linking these changes to the differential taxation incentives offered to foreign investors. Far from crippling innovation, divestment has sparked an increase in patenting – possibly in an effort by the new Chinese owners to reduce their tax burden.

Date: Tuesday, March 16, 2021, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Gotomeeting

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Gotomeeting-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-2 (Online):

Topic: Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Elections in the First Globalization

Felix Kersting (HU Berlin)

Abstract: We study the “grain invasion” of the first globalization (1880-1913) as a historical counterpart to today’s China shock. We show that trade shocks in agriculture depressed rural counties in Prussia. However, we do not find the decline in income per capita and the political polarization that studies find for today’s trade shock. Instead, workers left affected counties in large numbers. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of trade integration, but depend on labor mobility, too. For our analysis, we combine data from three industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level with national trade data at the product level. For causal identification, we instrument German trade exposure with trade exposure for Italy.

Date: Friday, March 12, 2021, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Gotomeeting

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-conference@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Gotomeeting-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-1 (Online):

Topic: Unfair Trade? Market Power in Agricultural Value Chains

Lucas Zavala (Yale University, USA)

Abstract: I show that exporter market power prevents farmers from benefiting from international trade. Using microdata from Ecuador, I link exporters to the farmers who supply them across the universe of cash crops. I document that farmers earn significantly less when they sell crops in which export markets are highly concentrated. I propose a model in which farmers choose a crop to produce and an exporter to supply. Exporter market power is driven by two key elasticities, which govern heterogeneity in farmer costs of switching crops and switching exporters. I develop a method to estimate them using exporter responses to international price shocks. The estimates imply that farmers earn half of their marginal revenue product as a result of market power. I evaluate the effectiveness of agricultural support policies in this setting. Fair Trade emerges as a practical tool for fighting market power and helping farmers share in the gains from globalization.

Date: Friday, January 15, 2021, 15:00 – 16:00

Venue: Virtually via Gotomeeting

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-conference@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Gotomeeting-Link to the seminar.