KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2022

The purpose of the seminar is to provide a platform for presenting and discussing ongoing research on determinants and consequences of globalisation in general and global value chains in particular. The seminar will take place on an irregular basis at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy or at the Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel. Both are scientific partners of KCG. Information about upcoming presentations will be provided here in advance.

If you have any questions about the KCG Research Seminar, please contact Dr. Wan-Hsin Liu (KCG Coordinator).

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2022-8 (Online): 

Topic: Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections

Prof. Dr. Julian Hinz (Bielefeld University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy & Kiel Centre for Globalization)

Abstract: Sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy — France — by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and counter-sanctions imposed between Russia and Western countries. Contrary to most of the existing literature we find clear evidence for exposure to the sanctions to cause an increase in the vote share for pro-Russian (and far-right) candidates during the 2017 presidential election. Locally, the impact on voting is substantial. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that 16,300 votes for the main French far-right candidate can be directly attributed to the sanctions’ impact. This is the total number of votes cast in a medium-sized French city. It is however not nearly enough to have affected the outcome of the election at the national level.

Date: Friday, September 23, 2022, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2022-7: 

Topic: The Development of Russia’s Political and Economic Relations with China

Prof. UAM dr hab. Mieczysław Sprengel (Adam Mickiewicz University)

Abstract: Henry Kissinger writes in his book On China on the first page of Chapter 18 The New Millennium about a new reality for China and the United States. He writes that “the United States and China knew they needed each other, but they were too big to dominate, too unusual to change, and too necessary for each other to allow isolation. After that, could they find common goals?” This question is crucial not only for Russian-American relations, but in the context of these relations, it is very much connected with Russian-Chinese relations. The research questions in this presentation concern: when did the Russian-Chinese relations change and what influenced the possible change of these relationships? How are these relationships shaped today and what can they look like in the future? The aim of this presentation is the answer to the above questions. The thesis for this material is: Russian-Chinese relations depend heavily on the US policy.

Date: Tuesday, July 26, 2022, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Lecture Hall at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2022-6 (Online): 

Topic: Dynamics and Developments of Chinese M&A Transactions in the wake of the BRI. A comparison of Germany and CEEC

Paulina Kintzinger (London School of Economic and Political Science)
Florian Horky (Zeppelin University)

Abstract: China’s “Belt-and-Road” initiative is one of the largest economic policy projects in history to date. It comes hand in hand with investments in almost all areas of life in nearly all countries of the world. In this article, dynamics of Chinese M&A activities in Europe related to the BRI are investigated. Germany as Europe’s largest economy is compared with the countries of the 17+1 Forum by using a modern sequential explanatory mixed-methods research design. The investigation shows along the four identified main fields: general scope, dynamics over time, sectoral focus and short-term financial development of target companies, crucial differences but also similarities of the regions studied. Based on the quantitative results as well as the in-depth expert insights, implications for politics and business are finally derived.

Date: Friday, June 24, 2022, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2022-5 (Online): 

Topic: Corporate tax avoidance and sales: micro evidence and aggregate implications

Prof. Farid Toubal, Ph.D. (University of Paris-Dauphine — PSL)

Abstract: This paper investigates the influence of corporate tax avoidance (CTA) on firm-level sales, and its aggregate implications. A simple model shows CTA gives a competitive advantage to avoiding firms, which leads to an increase in concentration if large firms adopt more aggressive tax planning strategies that small ones. We find support in US firm-level data for a positive and causal impact of CTA on firm-level sales using three alternative identification strategies. We then show CTA increased more among the largest firms in most industries, which reinforced their dominant position. In key industries, the differences in tax aggressiveness between large and small firms explain 10% to 30% of the increase in concentration over the last 25 years. CTA-induced concentration influences industrial real output to an extent that is relevant at the macroeconomic scale.

Date: Friday, June 17, 2022, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Media Room at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and via Zoom

Please note:
There is a very limited capacity for attending the seminar at the Kiel Institute.
If you plan to join in person, please send an enquiry to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de for registration.
To join the seminar via Zoom, please send an email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the corresponding Zoom-Link.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2022-4 (Online): 

Topic: Industrialization in the era of GVCs – A case study of the South African automotive industry

Tobias Wuttke (Roskilde University)

Abstract: There is a vibrant debate about how the global fragmentation of production influences the possibilities for export-led catch-up industrialization (à la East Asia) by developing countries today. It is generally emphasized that it has become easier for developing countries to export into world markets through the participation in global value chains (GVCs). In this paper, I discuss the case of the integration of South Africa into the automotive GVC over the last 25 years. Based on more than 50 semi-structured interviews with automotive assemblers, multinational component suppliers, locally owned component suppliers, and policymakers, as well as data from South African input-output tables, the paper argues that South Africa has enjoyed significant benefits from exporting into the automotive GVC, but it has not led to structural change and significant spillover effects to other industries. The automotive GVC’s governance structure, which is driven by powerful lead firm interests, undermines the building of domestic inter-industry linkages to automotive component manufacturing, local material production and local toolmaking. Industrial policy in South Africa was successful in attracting an export-oriented automotive industry to the country, despite the unfavourable geographical location. It, however, failed to foster the emergence of locally owned component firms with design and product development capabilities. An effort at developing a domestic electric car assembler failed because of a lack of coordination of policy. Overall, the industry operates as a large enclave with limited domestic backward linkages and without indigenous design and product development capabilities. By way of conclusion, the paper shows that this outcome is not unique to South Africa, but a predictable outcome of the governance dynamics of the automotive GVC, unless mitigated by determined and coordinated industrial policy.

Date: Friday, June 3, 2022, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Conference Room at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and via Zoom

Please note:
There is a very limited capacity for attending the seminar at the Kiel Institute.
If you plan to join in person, please send an enquiry to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de for registration.
To join the seminar via Zoom, please send an email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the corresponding Zoom-Link.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2022-3 (Online): 

Topic: Monopsony and firm variety: Applications to international trade and minimum wage

Priyaranjan Jha (University of California, Irvine)

Abstract: We construct a theoretical model where workers’ idiosyncratic preferences for different firms/employers generates monopsony power in the labor market and exhibits “love of firm variety” on the part of workers. In a heterogeneous firm setting, it also generates wage inequality among identical workers. In this setting, trade liberalization has implications for inequality and welfare. Trade liberalization affects welfare through a novel firm variety channel which depends on what happens to the mass of domestic firms: It provides additional welfare gains  when monopsony power is high but detracts from welfare gains when monopsony power is low.  Applying the model to the study of minimum wages, we find that the decentralized equilibrium under provides the mass of firms compared to the outcome achieved by a welfare-maximizing planner.  A binding minimum wage further reduces the mass of firms, exacerbating the distortion. Workers value employer variety, and thus, by reducing firm variety the minimum wage reduces workers’ welfare even if the average wage increases. Exploiting minimum-wage variation within multi-state commuting zones, we document a negative relationship between minimum wages and establishment counts in the United States. Based on estimated elasticities, our model predicts that a 10 percent minimum-wage hike reduces workers’ welfare by 1.87 percent.

Date: Friday, April 29, 2022, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Zoom
If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2022-2 (Online): 

Topic: Place-based policies and agglomeration economies: Firm-level evidence from Special Economic Zones in India

Alina Mulyukova (Kiel Institute & KCG)

Abstract: This paper exploits time and geographic variation in the adoption of Special Economic Zones in India to assess the direct and spillover effects of the program. We combine geocoded firm-level data and geocoded SEZs using a concentric ring approach, thus creating a novel dataset of firms with their assigned SEZ status. To overcome the selection bias we employ inverse probability weighting with time-varying covariates in a difference-in-differences framework. Our analysis yields that conditional on controlling for initial selection, the establishment of SEZs induced no further productivity gains for within SEZ firms, on average. This effect is predominantly driven by relatively less productive firms, whereas more productive firms experienced significant productivity gains. However, SEZs created negative externalities for firms in the vicinity which attenuate with distance. Neighbouring domestic firms, large firms, manufacturing firms and non-importer firms are the main losers of the program. Evidence points at the diversion of inputs from non-SEZ to SEZ-firms as a potential mechanism.

Date: Tuesday, March 8, 2022, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2022-1 (Online): 

Topic: On the Drivers of Clean Production: Firms’ Global Value Chain Positioning

Finn Ole Semrau (Kiel Institute & KCG)

Abstract: Industries occupying upstream positions in global value chains emit proportionately more CO2. But firms are heterogeneous even in narrowly defined industries. I empirically investigate if the negative relation between upstreamness and clean production, the latter measured as direct energy consumption and CO2 emissions in absolute and relative terms, holds at the firm-level. Using granular data of Indian manufacturing firms, I confirm the industry pattern in different specifications and the use of a 2-SLS instrumental variable approach – using advertisement expenditures over sales among firms producing a similar main product as an instrument. Notably, exposure to stringent market-related environmental policy in export destination markets negatively moderates the relation between upstreamness and dirty production, linking to the importance of regulation-push, demand-pull and learning-by-exporting for dirty producers in upstream position, characterised by a higher distance to the technology frontier.

Date: Tuesday, Jan. 18, 2022, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.