KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2023

The purpose of the seminar is to provide a platform for presenting and discussing ongoing research on determinants and consequences of globalisation in general and global value chains in particular. The seminar will take place on an irregular basis at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy or at the Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel. Both are scientific partners of KCG. Information about upcoming presentations will be provided here in advance.

If you have any questions about the KCG Research Seminar, please contact Dr. Wan-Hsin Liu (KCG Coordinator).

KCG Research Seminar 2023-9 (Hybrid): 

Topic: International transport infrastructure and regional economic development

Prof. Dr. Karsten Mau (Maastricht University)

Abstract: We evaluate how the unfolding of transcontinental railway connections affects China’s exports to Europe. Our findings indicate a general increase in exports to the newly connected destinations, which is driven primarily by rail transport. Sea transport benefits meanwhile. We observe an increase in exports without non-local intermediary and a long-term development of local firms’ achievement. The firm-level export increases in extensive margin and decreases in intensive margin. Facilitated by the new connection, inland cities and port cities have different performances in their export to other destinations than the newly connected ones. Inland cities have higher export in general but lower in rail export. Export growth concentrates among products with medium value-to-weight ratio and medium time sensitivity. Finally, we document interesting patterns in the regional spillovers. The rail connection benefits the periphery and the effects decrease with distance to the directly connected prefectures.

Date: Friday, October 20, 2023, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Online and in Medienraum (limited capacity) at the Kiel Institute

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the access link to the seminar.

KCG Research Seminar 2023-8 (Hybrid): 

Topic: A Quantitative Analysis of Sustainable Globalization

Prof. Marcos Ritel, Ph.D. (Kühne Logistics University)

Abstract: We analyze the economic effects of optimal climate action induced by a worldwide tax on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We conduct this analysis in the context of a modern quantitative trade model, which allows us to put numbers on the idea of `sustainable globalization’. We find that (i) a global carbon tax is remarkably efficient, (ii) a global carbon tax exacerbates between-country inequality, (iii) a global carbon tax has almost no effect on the trade-to-GDP-ratio, and (iv) international trade became initially browner and then again greener over the time period 1995-2018.

Date: Friday, September 29, 2023, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Online and in Medienraum (limited capacity) at the Kiel Institute

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the access link to the seminar.

KCG Research Seminar 2023-7 (Hybrid): 

Topic: The Motives of Chinese and Western Sovereign Lending to Africa

Dr. Eckhardt Bode (Kiel Institute)

Abstract: China’s sovereign lending to African countries is more motivated by economic considerations while Western countries’ lending is more motivated by political or charitable considerations. Based on a new dataset on sovereign loans to Africa and a comparative econometric investigation of the extensive margin of bilateral lending by China and six Western countries (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain and USA) since the early 2000s, I find few similarities and substantial differences in the motives for lending. China’s economic motives are evident from lending more likely to its more important African suppliers of natural resources and other merchandize as well as to prospective African customers. They are also evident from less concessionality in lending and greater sensitivity to the creditworthiness of borrowers. The Western countries are also more likely to lend to their more important African suppliers of natural resources but otherwise appear to have more political or charitable objectives. Unlike China, they are additionally more likely to lend to those African countries that are poorer in natural resources, are more indebted or have better institutions, among others. These differences in the motivations of lending could be another obstacle to resolving looming African debt crises in a timely and cooperative manner.

Date: Friday, August 25, 2023, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Online and in Medienraum (limited capacity) at the Kiel Institute

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the access link to the seminar.

KCG Research Seminar 2023-6 (Hybrid): 

Topic: Full-scale Russia’s trade sanctions and their welfare outcomes

Dr. Evgenii Monastyrenko (University of Luxembourg)

Abstract: In 2022-23 the Western countries turned to consolidate their efforts on sanctioning the fossil imports from Russia. The embargoes in place target coal and refined oil products. Since early 2023, the natural gaz and crude oil are also partially banned. This paper aims to quantify the outcomes of trade embargo on all involved counterparts. We rely on a general equilibrium model with domestic sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods and sectoral heterogeneity in production. We subsequently test the alternative scenarios where G7, EU, OECD countries or a larger bloc of countries introduce embargo on fossil exports from Russia. The embargoed sectors are gaz, crude and refined oil and coal. The results vary depending on the coalition of sanctioning countries and the selection of the banned sectors. In the most stringent scenario, where sanctions on all fossil exports are imposed, our analysis predicts a decrease in Russia’s welfare of nearly 10%, coupled with a significant decline in real consumption. Our results further suggest the double-edge axe negative outcomes for sanctioning countries. They range from -0.43% under a G7 embargo to -0.73% with the broadest coalition. Real consumption impacts follow a similar pattern, from -0.38% up to -1.14% in the most extensive scenario. Finally, a pivotal role is played by the EU countries, whose participation in the sanctions can significantly influence expected outcomes.

Date: Friday, August 18, 2023, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Online and in Medienraum (limited capacity) at the Kiel Institute

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the access link to the seminar.

KCG Research Seminar 2023-5 (Hybrid): 

Topic: Touristification and incumbent residents: evidence from personal income tax records

Prof. João Pereira dos Santos, Ph.D. (University of Lisbon)

Abstract: Touristification is a polarizing process associated with both opportunities and costs. We estimate the effect of a touristification boom for the incumbent residents in the most affected areas of Lisbon, Portugal. We rely on household-level data from personal income tax records between 2016 and 2019 to assess the effects of this shock on several types of income and on the decision to relocate. Using different instrumental variables strategies, we find consistently significant negative effects on displacement and a substantial heterogeneity on income effects. Finally, we also analyze in-migration effects.

Date: Friday, June 16, 2023, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Online and in Conference Room (limited capacity) at the Kiel Institute

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the access link to the seminar.

KCG Research Seminar 2023-4 (Hybrid): 

Topic: Stages of Technological Diversification

Prof. Aleksandra Parteka, Ph.D.  (Gdańsk University of Technology, Poland)

Abstract: We provide new tech-based interpretation of stages of diversification observed along the development path in a sample of 160 countries (1996-2018).  The decomposition of relative (weighted) Theil index allows us to reveal that export diversification process is driven by the increasing variety of non-tech exports. However, the role of technological variety evolves as countries move to higher development stages: it reaches the peak at about 66,000 US$ per person when the technological component is responsible for up to 40% of overall export diversification level. The role of digital technologies in the diversification process is negligible but we reveal cross-country differences in diversification trajectories. An accompanying set of results shows the application of a similar methodology to study export diversification dynamics in the context of natural resource dependence.

Date: Friday, April 21, 2023, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via teams and in Medienraum (limited capacity) at the Kiel Institute

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a teams-Link to the seminar.

KCG Research Seminar 2023-3 (Hybrid): 

Topic: Global Value Chains and Inward FDI: An Empirical Investigation of European Firms

Prof. Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, Ph.D. (Gdańsk University of Technology, Poland)

Abstract: The aim of this study is to provide a picture on how and why the level of GVC integration of a given market can attract foreign firms. Our paper contributes to the literature along several dimensions. First, unlike earlier studies which use country-level and sector-level data, our analysis is carried out at firm-level. To this end, we construct a unique panel dataset for European Union (EU-28) firms over the period 2008–2014 merging AMADEUS and Historical ORBIS data. While the first dataset provides us with firms financial and economic information, the second allows us to collect information on firm’s yearly ownership structure. Second, our analysis explores the existence of heterogeneity in the impact of GVC participation in relation to the EU membership of the host country (old and new EU member states) and the macro-sectors (manufacturing and services). Third, we verify if the impact of GVC on inward FDI depends not only on the intensity of GVC involvement but also on the position within the GVC. Our estimates suggest that country-sector GVC participation, via both backward and forward linkages, has a positive effect on firm’s likelihood to receive FDI. However, some degree of heterogeneity exists at the level of both countries and sectors.

Date: Friday, March 10, 2023, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via teams and in Medienraum (limited capacity) at the Kiel Institute

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a teams-Link to the seminar.

KCG Research Seminar 2023-2 (Hybrid): 

Topic: Quantifying the Extensive Margins of Trade and Production

David Torun, Ph.D., (University of St.Gallen)

Abstract: This paper builds a Ricardian model of international trade capturing that most countries have only a few trading partners within narrowly defined industries. The set of partner countries responds endogenously to shocks, thereby allowing to identify alternatives to key trading partners. I introduce trade zeros—or, an extensive margin of trade—via a bounded productivity distribution and a non-homothetic final-goods-assembly function. In the limit, without productivity caps, trade shares reduce to a standard gravity equation. I develop a novel calibration strategy to fit data on industry-level bilateral trade flows and aggregate production. Counterfactual exercises suggest that welfare changes after trade-cost shocks are typically amplified when accounting for the extensive margin of trade. This is primarily true for low- to medium-income countries. The number of inactive industry-level trade relations changes by approximately half the shock size; for instance, a 10% rise in global trade costs increases the number of bilateral zeros by 5%.

Date: Friday, February 3, 2023, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Zoom and in Medienraum (limited capacity) at the Kiel Institute

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

KCG Research Seminar 2023-1 (Hybrid): 

Topic: Household Wealth and Special Economic Zones in Africa

Cecília Hornok, Ph.D. (Kiel Institute for the World Economy & Kiel Centre for Globalization)

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of Special Economic Zones (SEZs), a place-based development policy, on household wealth in Africa. We exploit time and district-level variation in exposure to SEZs across 10 African countries using spatially merged detailed household and SEZs data. Using difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that the average wealth of households increased in treated districts after an SEZ was established. Most of the increase occurs between the 60th and 80th percentiles of the wealth distribution, while the effect is statistically zero in the lower part of the distribution.

Date: Friday, January 20, 2023, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Zoom and in Medienraum (limited capacity) at the Kiel Institute

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.