Kiel Trade Talks

The purpose of the seminar is to provide a platform for presenting and discussing ongoing research on globalization, above all international trade. It will take place monthly online or hybrid at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy or at the Bielefeld University. Both are the co-organizers of the Kiel Trade Talks.

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Kiel Trade Talks #7 (Online): 

Topic: Mapping Africa’s Import Product Dependency

Dr. Socrates Majune (University of Nairobi)

Abstract: This study tracks Africa’s excessive reliance on imported products based on five criteria: market concentration, foreign demand, capacity for domestic substitution, market relevance and product elasticity of substitution. Using Africa-partner country-product import data for 5,384 products between 1995 and 2022, we find that roughly 10% of products imported into Africa by value and volume are dependent. Africa’s dependent imports are mainly machines and electronics, transportation equipment, vegetables, and food products, and are primarily intermediate and consumption. These products are mainly sourced from Asia, whose share of risky imports in Africa has nearly tripled over the past three decades. China is currently the main source of Africa’s risky imports, while Brazil’s, India’s, and South Africa’s roles in supplying these products have soared in the past decade. Risky import products have a lower import survival rate than non-risky products, and most industries that rely on them are in the transport sector. Multilateral organizations and African countries can consider developing a common definition and list of products deemed as dependent imports whose trade performance can be tracked regularly. Targeted support for producers of dependent products and countries more likely to suffer from their scarcity can also be pursued. Ultimately, African countries can pursue strong and diversified trade relationships and commercial partnerships with other countries to reduce excessive interdependencies.

Date and time: May. 09, 2025 (Friday, 12:00-13:00 / CEST)

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

Kiel Trade Talks #5#6 (Online): tba

Kiel Trade Talks #4 (Online): 

Topic: Winners and Losers from Multinational Entry: The Labor Market Effects of Brazil’s FDI Liberalization

Ignacio Marra de Artiñano (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Abstract: This paper investigates the labor market consequences of Brazil’s 1995 foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization, which removed constitutional barriers explicitly discriminating against foreign investors. Exploiting the variation provided by the amendment, I use detailed employer–employee data and firm-level FDI inflows to analyze both the direct effects on workers employed by multinational corporation (MNC) affiliates and the indirect effects on domestic workers and firms. The findings reveal significant wage gains for workers switching to MNCs, particularly among college-educated individuals. In contrast, workers in domestic firms face heterogeneous outcomes: low-skilled workers experience declining wages and higher layoff risks, while college graduates enjoy modest wage gains. The liberalization thus acted as a skill-biased reallocation shock, disproportionately benefiting high-skilled workers. A structural model incorporating heterogeneous workers and firms with varying skill intensities rationalizes these findings and supports counterfactual analyses of alternative investment facilitation strategies.

Date and time: Feb. 21, 2025 (Friday, 12:00-13:00 / CET)

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

Kiel Trade Talks #3 (Online): 

Topic: Going Native: Foreign Firms’ Responses to Domestic Boycotts

Prof. Ting Chen, Ph.D. (Hong Kong Baptist University)

Abstract: This paper examines how international firms responded to nationalism-driven consumer boycotts, with a focus on China’s largest consumer boycott in history – the one against Japan following the 1931 Mukden Incident. We analyze firms’ marketing strategies by studying 20,675 newly registered trademarks from 1928 to 1935. The difference-in-differences analysis establishes that Japanese firms were more likely than those from other countries to adopt Chinese-style trademarks after the incident, particularly in the processed goods sector that directly faced consumers. Firm-level data from the textile industry demonstrates that adopting Chinese-style trademarks helped firms sustain output levels during the boycott.

Date and time: Jan. 17, 2025 (Friday, 12:00-13:00 / CET)

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

Kiel Trade Talks #2: 

Topic: Who Pays for the Tariffs and Why? A Tale of Two Countries

Prof. Lei Li, Ph.D. (University Göttingen)

Abstract: During the U.S.-China trade war, the U.S. punitive tariffs were almost entirely borne by U.S. importers. In contrast, only 68% of China’s retaliatory tariffs were paid by Chinese importers. The puzzling difference between the U.S. and China is mainly driven by their different import structures and product heterogeneity in tariff pass-through. China mainly imported products with lower tariff pass-through from the U.S., such as agricultural products and aircraft, while the U.S. primarily imported products with higher tariff pass-through from China, such as electronics. Furthermore, we decompose the product-level tariff pass-through and show that a higher ratio of import demand elasticity over export supply elasticity leads to lower tariff pass-through under perfect competition.

Date: November 29, 2024, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the Seminar-Link or to register for participation in Kiel.

Kiel Trade Talks #1 (Online): 

Topic: No blood in my mobile: regulating foreign suppliers

Ninon Moreau-Kastler, Ph.D. (EU Tax Observatory, Paris School of Economics)

Abstract: Can developed countries enforce that goods consumed domestically do not contribute to human rights violations in developing countries where they are sourced? This paper studies the enforcement of new due diligence policies, which constrain firms in developed countries to prevent human rights violations involvement of their foreign suppliers. I study the US Dodd-Frank Act Conflict Mineral Rule (2010), a law targeting specific conflict minerals extracted in DRC and adjoining countries. I explore how diligence obligations have affected the regulated source countries’ access to international markets and whether diligence is circumvented through legal havens. Comparing targeted bilateral trade flows to non-targeted products and exporters within the structural gravity framework, I find that this policy decreased DRC and adjoining countries’ exports in value of 3T products by 72%. But this new extraterritorial rule has unintended consequences: I estimate that 38% of exports are diverted to opaque countries, called legal havens after the law is implemented. Exports are then redirected to countries hosting suppliers of US-regulated firms. Looking at US firms’ reactions, I show that sales drop, while administrative costs increase at the time of the law.

Date: October 11, 2024, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.